000
WTPZ25 KNHC 042052
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014
2100 UTC MON AUG 04 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 121.6W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......  0NE  30SE  60SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 121.6W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 120.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.4N 123.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.7N 125.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.1N 128.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.6N 131.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 15.4N 136.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 16.0N 142.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 17.0N 149.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 121.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BERG