000
WTPZ25 KNHC 041439
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014
1500 UTC MON AUG 04 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 119.4W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 119.4W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 118.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 13.3N 121.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE  20SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.4N 124.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.7N 126.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.1N 129.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.0N 134.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 15.7N 140.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 16.5N 146.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 119.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BERG