000
WTPZ25 KNHC 010843
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052014
0900 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 104.3W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 104.3W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 104.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.4N 104.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.3N 104.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.1N 103.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.1N 104.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.2N 105.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 17.3N 107.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 17.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 104.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN