000
WTPZ25 KNHC 132045
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152013
2100 UTC SUN OCT 13 2013
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 112.7W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  45SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 112.7W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 112.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 20.6N 113.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 22.3N 113.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.7N 113.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 24.6N 113.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 25.1N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 26.0N 112.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 112.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART