000
WTPZ25 KNHC 131430
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152013
1500 UTC SUN OCT 13 2013
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 112.1W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 112.1W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 111.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.9N 113.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 21.7N 113.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 23.3N 113.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.3N 113.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 25.1N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 26.0N 112.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 112.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART