000
WTPZ25 KNHC 130830
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152013
0900 UTC SUN OCT 13 2013
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 111.0W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 111.0W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 110.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.6N 112.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 20.5N 113.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 22.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.2N 113.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 24.5N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 25.5N 112.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 111.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI