000
WTPZ25 KNHC 130232
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152013
0300 UTC SUN OCT 13 2013
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 110.2W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 110.2W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 109.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.4N 111.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.4N 112.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 21.1N 113.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.4N 113.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 24.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 25.5N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 26.0N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 110.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN