000
WTPZ25 KNHC 080835
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
0900 UTC MON JUL 08 2013
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 109.5W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 109.5W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 109.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.1N 110.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.5N 112.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.5N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.2N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.5N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 109.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH