000
WTPZ25 KNHC 080246
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
0300 UTC MON JUL 08 2013
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 108.7W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 100SE  60SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 108.7W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 108.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.4N 110.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.3N 111.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.3N 113.3W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.2N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 108.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN