000
WTPZ25 KNHC 072040
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
2100 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 108.1W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 100SE  60SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 108.1W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 107.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.0N 109.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.0N 111.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.9N 112.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.9N 114.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.0N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 108.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART