000
WTPZ25 KNHC 070833
TCMEP5
 
HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
0900 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR MAINLAND MEXICO EAST OF MANZANILLO...AND DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WATCH FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 106.5W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 106.5W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 106.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.1N 107.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.2N 109.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.3N 110.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.3N 112.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.8N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 25.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 106.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH