000
WTPZ25 KNHC 061454
TCMEP5
 
HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
1500 UTC SAT JUL 06 2013
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE
EAST COAST...AND SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 104.3W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 104.3W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 104.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.6N 105.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.7N 106.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.0N 108.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.1N 110.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.5N 113.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 25.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 25.0N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 104.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART