000
WTPZ25 KNHC 052043
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
2100 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO LA FORTUNA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 102.7W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  15SE  15SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 102.7W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 102.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.9N 103.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.9N 105.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.1N 106.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.4N 108.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 23.0N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 23.0N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 102.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART