000
WTPZ25 KNHC 051448
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
1500 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO EASTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO...AND
WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM WEST OF LA FORTUNA TO CABO
CORRIENTES.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO EAST OF
ZIHUATANEJO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO LA FORTUNA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 102.1W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  15SE  15SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 102.1W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 101.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.3N 103.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.2N 104.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.1N 106.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.1N 107.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.0N 111.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 22.5N 115.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 23.0N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 102.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART