000
WTPZ25 KNHC 050832
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
0900 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS
* WEST OF MANZANILLO TO LA FORTUNA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 101.2W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 101.2W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 100.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.9N 102.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.8N 103.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.6N 105.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.6N 106.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 21.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 22.0N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 101.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN