000 WTPZ25 KNHC 192035 TCMEP5 HURRICANE RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009 2100 UTC MON OCT 19 2009 A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST AND FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR TUESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA OR WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 111.7W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 35SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......120NE 75SE 95SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 360SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 111.7W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 111.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.2N 111.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 80NE 35SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...110NE 75SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.4N 111.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.9N 109.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 15NW. 34 KT... 75NE 85SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 23.5N 108.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 30SE 15SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.5N 106.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 111.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN