000
WTPZ25 KNHC 191432
TCMEP5
HURRICANE RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
1500 UTC MON OCT 19 2009
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST AND FROM SAN EVARISTO
SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS HURRICANE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 111.6W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE  90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 111.6W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 111.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.6N 112.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.7N 111.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 55NE  55SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.1N 111.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 55NE  55SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.8N 109.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  50SE  45SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE  90SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 25.5N 106.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 111.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN