000
WTPZ25 KNHC 190831
TCMEP5
HURRICANE RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
0900 UTC MON OCT 19 2009
 
AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE
SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST AND FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE
EAST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.
 
INTERESTS IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS HURRICANE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 111.1W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  950 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 200SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 111.1W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 110.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.4N 111.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.5N 112.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.8N 111.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  45SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...135NE 135SE 120SW 105NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 22.3N 110.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 135SE 105SW 105NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 25.5N 107.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 111.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH