000
WTPZ25 KNHC 190237
TCMEP5
HURRICANE RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
0300 UTC MON OCT 19 2009
 
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE.  A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY MONDAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 110.3W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  936 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 330SE 220SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 110.3W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 109.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.9N 111.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.0N 111.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.2N 111.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  45SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...135NE 135SE 120SW 105NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.7N 110.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 135SE 105SW 105NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 25.0N 107.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...105NE 130SE 105SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 26.5N 106.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 110.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG