000
WTPZ25 KNHC 182036
TCMEP5
HURRICANE RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
2100 UTC SUN OCT 18 2009
 
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT OR MONDAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 109.4W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  921 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 330SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 109.4W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 109.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.1N 110.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.3N 111.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.4N 111.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  45SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N 111.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 105SW 105NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 24.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 105SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 26.0N 106.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 109.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN