000
WTPZ25 KNHC 181439
TCMEP5
HURRICANE RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
1500 UTC SUN OCT 18 2009
 
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 108.3W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  914 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 330SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 108.3W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 107.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.5N 109.8W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.6N 111.1W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.6N 111.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.9N 111.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 23.0N 110.0W...INLAND OVER BAJA PENINSULA
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 25.5N 107.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 108.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN