000
WTPZ25 KNHC 180838
TCMEP5
HURRICANE RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
0900 UTC SUN OCT 18 2009
 
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 107.2W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  906 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 155 KT WITH GUSTS TO 190 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 150SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 107.2W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 106.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.9N 109.0W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.0N 110.7W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.0N 111.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.1N 112.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 24.5N 109.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 28.0N 104.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 107.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH