000
WTPZ25 KNHC 180235
TCMEP5
HURRICANE RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
0300 UTC SUN OCT 18 2009
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 105.9W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  906 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 155 KT WITH GUSTS TO 190 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT....... 75NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT.......135NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 105.9W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 105.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.7N 107.8W
MAX WIND 160 KT...GUSTS 195 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.6N 110.0W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  45SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT... 85NE  75SE  65SW  80NW.
34 KT...150NE 135SE 125SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 85NE  75SE  65SW  80NW.
34 KT...165NE 140SE 130SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N 111.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 85NE  85SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...165NE 165SE 140SW 140NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 23.5N 110.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 27.0N 106.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 105.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA