000
WTPZ25 KNHC 172035
TCMEP5
HURRICANE RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
2100 UTC SAT OCT 17 2009
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 104.5W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  934 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT....... 75NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT.......135NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 104.5W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 103.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.3N 106.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.0N 108.8W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.0N 110.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  45SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT... 85NE  75SE  65SW  80NW.
34 KT...150NE 135SE 125SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.9N 111.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 85NE  75SE  65SW  80NW.
34 KT...165NE 140SE 130SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.0N 112.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 85NE  85SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...165NE 165SE 140SW 140NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 22.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 25.5N 108.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 104.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN