000
WTPZ25 KNHC 171011
TCMEP5
HURRICANE RICK SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
1015 UTC SAT OCT 17 2009
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 102.3W AT 17/1015Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  948 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  75SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE  75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 102.3W AT 17/1015Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 101.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.3N 103.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.9N 106.1W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  45SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.7N 108.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  45SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.5N 110.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...165NE 140SE 130SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.4N 112.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...165NE 140SE 115SW 130NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 20.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 23.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 102.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI