000
WTPZ25 KNHC 162038
TCMEP5
HURRICANE RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
2100 UTC FRI OCT 16 2009
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 100.0W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 75NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 100.0W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N  99.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 13.2N 101.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  35SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 13.7N 103.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.3N 105.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  45SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...135NE 120SE 120SW 135NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.0N 108.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  75SE  65SW  75NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 135SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.5N 111.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  75SE  65SW  75NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 135SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 18.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 20.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 100.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN