000
WTPZ25 KNHC 161437
TCMEP5
HURRICANE RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
1500 UTC FRI OCT 16 2009
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N  99.4W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N  99.4W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N  99.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 12.9N 100.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 13.3N 102.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 13.7N 104.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...105NE 105SE  90SW 105NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.3N 106.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...135NE 120SE 120SW 135NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 135SW 180NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 19.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N  99.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN