000
WTPZ25 KNHC 160834
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
0900 UTC FRI OCT 16 2009
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N  98.7W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  35SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N  98.7W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  97.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 12.7N  99.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 13.3N 101.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...105NE  90SE  90SW 105NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 13.8N 103.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.4N 105.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 125SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 18.0N 112.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 20.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N  98.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN