000
WTPZ25 KNHC 152038
TCMEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
2100 UTC THU OCT 15 2009
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N  97.0W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N  97.0W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  96.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 12.6N  98.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE  35SE  35SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.0N  99.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 13.4N 101.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 13.9N 103.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...125NE  90SE  90SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.0N 108.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE  85SE  70SW  85NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 17.0N 111.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 19.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N  97.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN