000
WTPZ25 KNHC 211444
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007
1500 UTC SUN OCT 21 2007
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIKO.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.4W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 75NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.4W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 107.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.7N 107.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 20.1N 108.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.6N 110.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.1N 112.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.0N 115.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 23.5N 119.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 24.5N 123.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 107.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME