000
WTPZ25 KNHC 201430
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007
1500 UTC SAT OCT 20 2007
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KIKO.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 106.6W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 106.6W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 106.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.7N 107.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.6N 107.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...105NE 105SE 105SW 105NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.4N 108.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 105SE 105SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 20.8N 109.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 105SE 105SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...105NE  90SE  90SW 105NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 22.0N 115.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 22.5N 119.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 106.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN