000
WTPZ25 KNHC 200836
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007
0900 UTC SAT OCT 20 2007
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KIKO.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 106.1W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 106.1W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.3N 106.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.1N 107.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.9N 108.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.7N 108.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 21.7N 110.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 22.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 23.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 106.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB