000
WTPZ25 KNHC 200231
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007
0300 UTC SAT OCT 20 2007
 
AT 8 PM PDT...03000 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO
NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KIKO.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 105.9W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 180SE 180SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 105.9W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 105.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.1N 106.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N 107.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.7N 107.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.5N 108.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.0N 109.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 105SE 105SW 105NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 21.5N 111.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 22.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 105.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA