000
WTPZ25 KNHC 192030
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007
2100 UTC FRI OCT 19 2007
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KIKO.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 105.5W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 180SE 180SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 105.5W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 105.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.8N 106.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.4N 106.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.2N 107.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.0N 107.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 105SE 105SW 105NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 21.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 22.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 105.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN