000
WTPZ25 KNHC 190839
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007
0900 UTC FRI OCT 19 2007
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIKO.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 104.9W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  60SE  60SW  45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 180SE 180SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 104.9W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 104.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.0N 105.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE  60SE  60SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.5N 105.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.1N 106.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.7N 107.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 21.0N 110.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 21.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 104.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB