000
WTPZ25 KNHC 190251
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007
0300 UTC FRI OCT 19 2007
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO MANZANILLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO NORTH OF MANZANILLO TO LA FORTUNA.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIKO.  WARNINGS AND WATCHES COULD BE
ADJUSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN COAST ON FRIDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 104.6W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  75SE  90SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 180SE 180SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 104.6W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 104.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.2N 104.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.7N 105.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.2N 105.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.8N 106.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  35SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  40SW  45NW.
34 KT...105NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 20.5N 108.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 21.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 104.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA