000
WTPZ25 KNHC 181431
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007
1500 UTC THU OCT 18 2007
 
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM
ZIHUATANEJO TO MANZANILLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF
MANZANILLO TO LA FORTUNA.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 103.4W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  75SE  90SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 240SE 180SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 103.4W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 103.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.0N 103.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  75SE  90SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.5N 103.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.0N 103.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N 104.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.5N 105.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 20.5N 106.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 22.0N 107.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 103.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN