000
WTPZ25 KNHC 180845
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007
0900 UTC THU OCT 18 2007
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KIKO.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 104.2W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  60 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  75SE  90SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 240SE 180SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 104.2W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.9N 103.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  75SE  90SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.7N 103.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.5N 103.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.2N 104.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.0N 105.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 20.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 22.0N 108.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 104.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME