000
WTPZ25 KNHC 172030
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007
2100 UTC WED OCT 17 2007
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KIKO.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 105.4W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  80 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  75SE  90SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 240SE 240SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 105.4W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 105.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.9N 104.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  75SE  90SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.5N 104.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.1N 104.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.7N 105.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.5N 105.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  75SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 18.5N 106.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 19.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 105.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN