000
WTPZ25 KNHC 160831
TCMEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007
0900 UTC TUE OCT 16 2007
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 108.9W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 108.9W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 108.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.3N 108.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.4N 108.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.6N 108.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.7N 108.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 15.5N 109.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 16.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 108.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH