000
WTPZ25 KNHC 152031
TCMEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007
2100 UTC MON OCT 15 2007
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 108.7W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 108.7W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 108.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.1N 108.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE  45SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.1N 108.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE  45SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.1N 108.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE  45SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.1N 108.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE  45SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE  45SW  45NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 15.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 15.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 108.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB