000
WTPZ25 KNHC 150247
TCMEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007
0300 UTC MON OCT 15 2007
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 108.5W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 108.5W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 108.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.2N 108.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE  45SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.4N 108.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.5N 108.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.7N 107.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  45SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  45SW  45NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 17.5N 108.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 18.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 108.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME