000
WTPZ24 KNHC 311443
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192023
1500 UTC TUE OCT 31 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N  89.9W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  60SE  45SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N  89.9W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N  90.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 11.5N  89.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.7N  90.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.5N  91.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.1N  93.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 10.5N  95.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z  9.9N  98.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z  9.4N 103.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z  9.8N 108.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N  89.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 31/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN