000
WTPZ24 KNHC 182045
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092023
2100 UTC FRI AUG 18 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 112.2W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE  40SE  25SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT.......240NE 200SE 110SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 360SE 300SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 112.2W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 111.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.3N 113.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  40SE  25SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...240NE 200SE 110SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 22.6N 114.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...230NE 190SE 130SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 25.6N 115.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...220NE 180SE 130SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 29.4N 116.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 34.1N 117.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 39.3N 117.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 112.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 19/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI