000 WTPZ24 KNHC 221439 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022 1500 UTC SAT OCT 22 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PLAYA PERULA TO EL ROBLITO * LAS ISLAS MARIAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF EL ROBLITO TO MAZATLAN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO MANZANILLO * NORTH OF EL ROBLITO TO MAZATLAN A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 106.3W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 106.3W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.2W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.2N 106.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.4N 105.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.1N 104.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.1N 101.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 106.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 22/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN