000 WTPZ24 KNHC 210838 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022 0900 UTC FRI OCT 21 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO MANZANILLO. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS AND FROM SAN BLAS TO EL ROBLITO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO EL ROBLITO * LAS ISLAS MARIAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO MANZANILLO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSLYN. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 103.8W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 20SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 60SE 0SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 103.8W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 103.5W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.6N 104.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.4N 105.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.7N 106.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.5N 106.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.0N 105.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.7N 103.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 103.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 21/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG