000 WTPZ24 KNHC 210242 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022 0300 UTC FRI OCT 21 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA NORTHWARD TO SAN BLAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO MANZANILLO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE ISLAS MARIAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 103.6W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 103.6W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 103.3W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.0N 104.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.7N 105.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.9N 106.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.5N 106.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.3N 106.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.4N 105.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 103.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 21/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART