000
WTPZ24 KNHC 202035
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192022
2100 UTC THU OCT 20 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE ISLAS MARIAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 103.0W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  45SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 103.0W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 102.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.8N 103.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.3N 104.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.2N 105.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.5N 106.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.8N 106.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 25.0N 104.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 103.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 21/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN