000
WTPZ24 KNHC 200841
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192022
0900 UTC THU OCT 20 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  WATCHES MAY BE 
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST LATER TODAY.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 101.5W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 101.5W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 101.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.3N 102.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.6N 103.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.1N 104.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.8N 105.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.9N 106.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.4N 106.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 23.4N 104.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 101.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG