000 WTPZ24 KNHC 180855 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MADELINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142022 0900 UTC SUN SEP 18 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 106.6W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 130SE 130SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 330SE 270SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 106.6W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 106.6W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.8N 107.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 100SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.9N 108.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.6N 109.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.9N 110.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.1N 112.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.2N 113.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 21.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 21.0N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 106.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 18/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN